经济新常态下外贸发展对我国碳排放的影响

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摘要选取灵活的单区域模型，运用实物产值比计算方法，选取日本为进口代表国并结合进口国GDP排放强度的修正方法，针对加工贸易产品占我国外贸总额约50%的特点，改进现有内涵排放测算方法.研究结果显示我国出口产品内涵排放得到了显著的改善，呈现碳排放与出口额脱钩的现象，进口产品内涵排放占比全国碳排放的比重维持在3～5%左右，“十二五”期间净出口内涵排放的总量和占比比“十一五”期间都有所降低，显示我国出口贸易政策调整作用正在显现.需要不断坚持优化进出口政策，尽早实现我国进出口产品内涵排放之间的平衡.投资增速的快速下降已经开始对产业结构产生影响，但中国未来需要进一步加速最终消费的增长以弥补投资下降所带来的需求不足，并鼓励服务业需求的发展.

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	顾阿伦
	何建坤
	周玲玲

关键词 ：经济新常态, 对外贸易, 碳排放

Abstract：This paper chose a flexible single-region model and used the conversion method from value to material of primary energy. Japan had been selected as the import representative country, and combined with the revision method of major import countries' emissions per unit of GDP. In view of the processing trade accounts for about 50% of China's total foreign trade, the existing embodied emission calculation method had been improved. The results show that the embodied emission of China's exports has been significantly improved, with decoupling between carbon emissions and exports. And the proportion of imports to China's total carbon emissions is about 3%~5%. During the 12^th Five-Year Plan period (2011~2015), the net export embodied emissions and the proportion are both lower than those during the 11^th Five-Year Plan period (2006~2010). This indicates that the achievements of China's export policy adjustment are emerging. However, there needs to be constant adherence to the optimization of import and export polices. Then the balance between the import and export embodied emissions can be achieved as soon as possible. The rapid decline in investment growth has also begun to impact the industrial structure. But in the future, China needs to further accelerate the growth of final consumption to make up for the lack of demand caused by the decline in investment and encourage the development of demand of services industry.

Key words： new normal economy foreign trade carbon emissions

收稿日期: 2019-09-20

PACS:

X196

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目（71690243，71573145）；第四次气候变化国家评估报告：减缓气候变化

通讯作者: 顾阿伦,副研究员,gal@tsinghua.edu.cn E-mail: gal@tsinghua.edu.cn

作者简介: 顾阿伦(1973年-),女,辽宁铁岭人,副研究员,博士,主要从事能源气候变化政策,碳市场研究.发表论文40余篇.

引用本文:

顾阿伦, 何建坤, 周玲玲. 经济新常态下外贸发展对我国碳排放的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(5): 2295-2303. GU A-lun, HE Jian-kun, ZHOU Ling-ling. The influences of international trade development on China's carbon emissions during the new normal economic period. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(5): 2295-2303.

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