Projection on energy demand and carbon emission in various economic developing pathways——A case study in Hebei province
WENG Zhi-xiong1, MA Zhong-yu1,2, GE Cha-zhong3, CAI Song-feng2, CHENG Cui-yun3, DU Yan-Chun3
1. School of Environment & amp;Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China; 2. State Information Center, Beijing 100045, China; 3. Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100045, China
Abstract:This study uses the cointegration test and the Markov chain method to project Hebei's future (2017~2035) energy demand and structure, and the associated CO2 emissions by considering three distinct economic developing scenarios. The results show that the economic growth has strong pulling effect on energy demand. Under the low-growth scenario, Hebei's per capita energy consumption and total consumption will reach 5.261tce and 416.13million tce respectively. While these consumptions will be 7.618tce and 602.58million tce respectively under the high-growth scenario. Hebei's future energy consumption structure will maintain stable in the long term, unlikely to change the percentage of coal in total energy consumption. The coal consumption will reach 88.16% in Hebei's total energy consumption in 2035. The increasing trend of Hebei's CO2 emissions will continue in the long run. Under the high-growth scenario, Hebei's total CO2 emissions will increase from 876.99million ton in 2017 to 1 591.17million ton, 1.01times and 1.45times higher than the contemporaneous emissions in the low-growth scenario respectively. It's thus necessary to keep Hebei's economic growth within a rational range, optimize energy consumption structure, adjust industrial distribution, cultivate and develop new economy.
翁智雄, 马忠玉, 葛察忠, 蔡松锋, 程翠云, 杜艳春. 不同经济发展路径下的能源需求与碳排放预测——基于河北省的分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019, 39(8): 3508-3517.
WENG Zhi-xiong, MA Zhong-yu, GE Cha-zhong, CAI Song-feng, CHENG Cui-yun, DU Yan-Chun. Projection on energy demand and carbon emission in various economic developing pathways——A case study in Hebei province. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(8): 3508-3517.
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