广州市大气NO<sub>2</sub>污染对暴露人群不同疾病死亡的影响

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摘要通过收集广州市2011~2015年6种疾病（非意外因素、心血管疾病、脑卒中、缺血性心脏病、呼吸系统疾病以及慢性阻塞性肺疾病）逐日死亡人数、逐日NO₂浓度以及同期气象资料，采用广义相加模型探讨了NO₂暴露对不同疾病死亡的影响（相对危险度，RR值）和累积滞后效应，并进一步采用分层分析方法解析了冷季（11月至次年4月）和暖季（5~10月） NO₂死亡风险的差异.结果表明，NO₂影响急促短暂，通常持续4d.当NO₂浓度升高10μg/m³，在Lag0-4d时，人群非意外死亡人数将上升2.18%（RR=1.0218；95% CI：1.0167，1.0270），在冷季与暖季分别上升2.6%（RR=1.0260；95% CI：1.0191，1.0328）与0.57%（RR=1.0057；95% CI：0.9952，1.0163），两者差异有统计学意义（P=0.002）.在不同疾病中，NO₂对慢性阻塞性肺疾病的影响最大.因而NO₂仍然为广州地区人群健康重要的危险因素，需要加强NO₂排放的控制与治理，并且加强冷季健康风险预警以保护公共健康.

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	蔡东杰
	杨军
	黄琳
	陈素娟
	赵文龙
	董航
	林国帧
	王伯光

关键词 ： NO₂, 逐日死亡人数, 健康风险, 广义相加模型, 季节效应

Abstract：Atmospheric NO₂, a major gaseous pollutant, has received increasing attentions due to its high health risk, especially to human cardiopulmonary function. However, current assessments of the health effects of NO₂ mainly focused on one single disease. In this study, the generalized additive model (GAM) was used to evaluate impacts of atmospheric NO₂ pollution on cause-specific mortality (Relative risk, RR) in exposed population in Guangzhou during 2011~2015, as well as its cumulative lag effects₂. Furthermore, the stratified analysis was performed in the cold season (November through April) and the warm season (May to October). The results show that effects of NO₂ were observed to be rapid and transient, usually lasting for four days. In lag 0~4 days when the NO₂ increased by 10μg/m³, the number of non-accidental deaths increased by 2.18% (RR=1.0218; 95% CI:1.0167, 1.0270) in the full year, and 2.6% (RR=1.0260; 95% CI:1.0191, 1.0328) in the cold season and 0.57% (RR=1.0057; 95% CI:0.9952, 1.0163) in the warm season. The difference in the NO₂-induced mortality risks between cold and warm seasons was statistically significant (P=0.002). Among different diseases, NO₂ pollution showed the greatest influence on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Therefore, atmospheric NO₂ pollution is still an important risk to the residents in Guangzhou. And it is necessary to strengthen the control and management of NO₂ emissions and implement the early warning of NO₂ pollution to protect the public health, particularly during the cold season.

Key words： NO₂ mortality health risk GAM seasonal effect

收稿日期: 2022-01-24

PACS:

X503.1

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（82003552）；广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目（2020A1515011161）；国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0213600）

通讯作者: 杨军,教授,yangjun@gzhmu.edu.cn;王伯光,教授,tbongue@jnu.edu.cn E-mail: yangjun@gzhmu.edu.cn;tbongue@jnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 蔡东杰(1994-),男,湖北荆门人,暨南大学硕士研究生.主要从事环境与健康方面的研究.

引用本文:

蔡东杰, 杨军, 黄琳, 陈素娟, 赵文龙, 董航, 林国帧, 王伯光. 广州市大气NO₂污染对暴露人群不同疾病死亡的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022, 42(8): 3950-3956. CAI Dong-jie, YANG Jun, HUANG Lin, CHEN Su-juan, ZHAO Wen-long, DONG Hang, LIN Guo-zhen, WANG Bo-guang. Impacts of atmospheric NO₂ pollution on cause-specific mortality of different diseases in exposed population in Guangzhou. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(8): 3950-3956.

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