上海市PM<sub>2.5</sub>污染相关的死亡负担和经济健康损失评估

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摘要基于2021年上海市16个区的细颗粒物(PM_2.5)年均浓度数据,采用全球暴露死亡模型和统计生命价值法,评估了实际污染水平及不同PM_2.5控制情景下PM_2.5污染相关的死亡负担和相应的健康经济损失.结果表明,尽管2021年上海市PM_2.5年均浓度(27 µg/m³)低于我国环境空气质量二级标准(35 µg/m³),但相对于反事实最小PM_2.5年均浓度(2.4 µg/m³),仍可造成13274(95%CI:10110~21483)人过早死亡,人群归因分数为9.5%(95%CI:7.3%~15.5%),相应健康经济损失为665.24(95%CI:506.65~1076.64)亿元,占上海市生产总值的1.5%(95%CI:1.2%~2.5%).相对于当前评估水平,若PM_2.5年均浓度降低至世界卫生组织(WHO)最新提出的PM_2.5空气质量指导值水平(5 µg/m³),上海市PM_2.5相关死亡人数将减少9873人,经济损失将减少74.4%.因此,建议制定更为严格的地方性空气质量标准以保障上海市公众健康.

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关键词 ：细颗粒物, 全球暴露死亡模型, 死亡负担, 经济损失

Abstract：Based on the annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in 16 districts of Shanghai in 2021. the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) and the Value of Statistic Life (VSL) method were used in the analysis. This study aimed to assess the PM_2.5-related mortality burden and the corresponding health economic losses based on current pollution levels and different PM_2.5 pollution control scenarios in Shanghai. The results showed that although the annual average PM_2.5 concentration in Shanghai in 2021 (27µg/m³) was lower than the national secondary annual PM_2.5 standard (35µg/m³), the excess PM_2.5-related deaths still amounted to 13,274 (95%CI: 10,110~21,483) relative to the counterfactual annual average PM_2.5 concentration (2.4µg/m³), with an attributable fraction of 9.5% (95%CI: 7.3%~15.5%). The corresponding health economic loss was 66.52billion (95%CI: 50.67~107.66) yuan, accounting for 1.5% (95%CI: 1.2%~2.5%) of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Shanghai. Compared with the current estimates, if the annual average concentration of PM_2.5 was reduced to the latest Air Quality Guideline level (5µg/m³) proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO), the number of PM_2.5-related deaths would be decreased by 9,873, and the corresponding health economic loss would be decreased by 74.4% in Shanghai. Therefore, it is suggested that more stringent local ambient air quality standards should be established to protect public health from air pollution in Shanghai.

Key words： fine particulate matter global exposure mortality model mortality burden economic loss

收稿日期: 2022-12-10

PACS:

X503.1

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(92043301)

通讯作者: 阚海东,教授,kanh@fudan.edu.cn E-mail: kanh@fudan.edu.cn

作者简介: 周璐(1998-),女,江西吉安人,复旦大学博士研究生,主要从事环境流行病学研究.发表论文10余篇.lzhou22@m.fudan.edu.cn

引用本文:

周璐, 牛越, 陈仁杰, 阚海东. 上海市PM_2.5污染相关的死亡负担和经济健康损失评估[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(7): 3741-3747. ZHOU Lu, NIU Yue, CHEN Ren-jie, KAN Hai-dong. Assessment of PM_2.5-related mortality burden and health economic loss in Shanghai. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(7): 3741-3747.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I7/3741

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