Socio-economic drivers of surface water bodies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
YANG Zhen-hua1, ZHAO Tong-tie-gang2, TIAN Yu3, YANG Fang4, ZHENG Yan-hui5, CHEN Xiao-hong2
1. Eco-Environmental Monitoring and Scientific Research Center, Bureau of Eco-Environmental Supervision of the South China Sea Waters of the Pearl River Basin, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Guangzhou 510610, China; 2. Water Resources and Environment Research Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; 3. Water Resources Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Water Resources and Hydropower, Beijing 100038, China; 4. Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Guangzhou 520611, China; 5. School of Environment, South University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
Abstract：Focusing on the Great Bay Area of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao (GBA), the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) of surface water and its socio-economic drivers were identified in the paper.Specifically, the Landsat images were utilized to extract the long-term sequence of surface water dynamics, the EKC was obtained through land use/cover change analysis and the driving factors of long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation were illustrated. The results shown that the urban surface water bodies in the GBA generally showed a nonlinear characteristic of first rise and then fall, and depended on the transformation characteristics between water bodies and cropland and impervious surfaces in the past 30a, with the surface water body area increasing by 1323.14km2 from 1990 to 2000, and then fluctuating and decreasing from 2000 onwards; the EKC of the surface water rate and GDP per unit area generally showed a N-type characteristics of rapid decline and gentle rebound reflect the loss/gain of water bodies by anthropogenic cover and ecological restoration/reservoir expansion projects; the DARDL-UECM model clarifies the accuracy of the simulation results (R2>0.7, P<0.000) and the contribution of factors. Regardless of the short-term fluctuation stage or long-term equilibrium stage, ratios of impervious surface, forested land and cropland area share are the main driving factors for urban surface water bodies, and the mean values of the cumulative contributions of the three factors are 0.96 and 0.93.
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