清洁取暖政策试点的空气质量改善效应评估——基于三批试点地级市的准自然实验

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摘要为评估清洁取暖试点政策的空气质量改善效果，基于2014~2019年321个地级行政单位6年的平衡面板数据，采用多期双重差分（DID）方法对清洁取暖试点政策效果进行定量评估.研究发现，清洁取暖试点政策显著降低了城市空气污染水平，改善了空气质量，平均而言，试点城市的空气质量指数（AQI）比非试点城市显著低4.12；AQI，PM_2.5，PM₁₀和SO₂分别下降了约5.49%，11.47%，12.65%和35.66%.这一结论在进行了一系列稳健性检验后依然成立.清洁取暖试点政策改善城市环境质量的内在机制在于，试点政策改变了城市居民采暖能源结构，减少了硫化物和颗粒物的排放.因此“十四五”期间应进一步扩大清洁取暖政策范围，增加财政投入，提高财政支出效率，降低清洁能源成本，推广清洁能源全覆盖.

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关键词 ：清洁取暖, 空气质量, 政策评估, 能源结构, PM_2.5, 多期双重差分(DID)

Abstract：Based on the balanced panel data of 321 prefecture level cities from 2014 to 2019, the multi-period Differences-in-Differences (DID) approach was used to quantify the air pollution improvement effect of the Clean Heating Policy Pilot (CHPP) in China. The results showed that the CHPP significantly reduced air pollution and improved the air quality of pilot cities. On average, the air quality index (AQI) of the pilot cities was significantly lower than that of the non-pilot cities by 4.12; AQI, PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and SO₂ decreased by about 5.49%, 11.47%, 12.65% and 35.66% respectively. The result remained consistent after a series of robustness tests. The internal mechanism of the CHPP to improve urban air quality was that the CHPP changed the heating energy structure of urban residents and reduced the emission of sulfide and inhalable particulate matter. Therefore, during the "14th five-year plan" period, it is recommended that the government should expand the implementation scope of CHPP, increase financial investment, promote fiscal expenditure efficiency, reduce the costs of clean energy and promote the universal adoption of clean energy.

Key words： clean heating air quality policy evaluation energy structure PM_2.5 DID

收稿日期: 2023-05-22

PACS:	F299.24
	X51

基金资助:国家社会科学基金重点项目（20AZZ008）

通讯作者: 刘文璋,研究员,lwzl@ruc.edu.cn E-mail: lwzl@ruc.edu.cn

作者简介: 王玉(1997-),女,安徽铜陵人,中国人民大学公共管理学院博士研究生,研究方向为公共政策、基层治理.发表论文3篇.wangyu1997@ruc.edu.cn.

引用本文:

王玉, 刘文璋. 清洁取暖政策试点的空气质量改善效应评估——基于三批试点地级市的准自然实验[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(1): 581-592. WANG Yu, LIU Wen-zhang. Evaluating the effect of Clean Heating Policy Pilot on air quality improvement: A quasi-experimental study based on three batches of pilot cities in China. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(1): 581-592.

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