长三角居民PM<sub>2.5</sub>暴露水平下降的健康效益评估

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摘要为评估长三角地区居民PM_2.5降低的健康经济效益,基于时间加权PM_2.5暴露水平,通过综合暴露反应关系模型和支付意愿法等,分析了2011~2019年长三角地区居民PM_2.5暴露水平下降趋势及其健康和经济协同效益.结果表明:2011~2019年间,长三角地区的PM_2.5暴露浓度从45.06μg/m³下降至37.39μg/m³,降幅为17.03%;同时归因于PM_2.5暴露导致的过早死亡人数从139962 (95%CI: 87306~192619)人下降至105461 (95%CI: 66306~14416)人,降幅为24.65%.从敏感性分析的年际变化看,归因于PM_2.5暴露导致的过早死亡在2012年政策实施后呈逐年下降趋势,表明我国各项PM_2.5控制政策卓有成效.产生的累积协同效益为40.55亿美元;2018年开始PM_2.5减排健康协同经济效益有所降低.因此在降碳的同时还需继续加强减污协同控制,以减少可归因死亡和健康经济损失.

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	魏彤
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	王丹璐
	侯雅宣
	刘芬

关键词 ： PM_2.5减排, 暴露加权, 健康效益, 经济效益, 过早死亡

Abstract：The aim of this study was to evaluate the health and economic benefits of PM_2.5 emission reduction for residents in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. Based on the time-weighted PM_2.5 exposure levels, the decreasing trend in PM_2.5 exposure of residents in the YRD region from 2011 to 2019, and its health and economic synergies, were analyzed using an integrated exposure-response model and the willingness-to-pay method. The results showed that, from 2011 to 2019, the PM_2.5 exposure level in the YRD region decreased by 17.03% from 45.06μg/m³ to 37.39μg/m³. Meanwhile, the number of premature deaths attributable to PM_2.5 exposure decreased by 24.65% from 139, 962 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 87306~192619) to 105461 (95% CI: 66306~14416). According to the interannual variation-based sensitivity analysis, the number of premature deaths attributed to PM_2.5 exposure showed a downward trend year by year after the implementation of relevant policies in 2012, with cumulative benefits of 4.055 billion dollars. These data indicate the effectiveness of various PM_2.5 emission reduction actions in China. Since 2018, the annual economic benefits of PM_2.5 emission reduction have decreased. Therefore, while reducing carbon emissions, it is necessary to continue to strengthen the control of pollution reduction to reduce attributable deaths and economic loss.

Key words： PM_2.5 emission reduction weighted exposure health benefits economic benefits premature death

收稿日期: 2022-11-14

PACS:

X513

基金资助:中央财政科技计划结余经费资助项目(2021-JY-03);北京市社会科学基金资助项目(19GLB012)

通讯作者: 刘芬,教授,liufen05@ccmu.edu.cn E-mail: liufen05@ccmu.edu.cn

作者简介: 魏彤(1997-),女,北京人,首都医科大学公共卫生学院硕士,主要从事流行病学和卫生统计学的研究.发表论文2篇.weit0607@126.com

引用本文:

魏彤, 李政蕾, 陈昱, 赵秀阁, 王丹璐, 侯雅宣, 刘芬. 长三角居民PM_2.5暴露水平下降的健康效益评估[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(6): 3211-3219. WEI Tong, LI Zheng-lei, CHEN Yu, ZHAO Xiu-ge, WANG Dan-lu, HOU Ya-xuan, LIU Fen. Assessment of the health benefits of declining PM_2.5 levels in the Yangtze River Delta. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(6): 3211-3219.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I6/3211

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