碳中和背景下中国交通部门低碳发展转型路径

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摘要基于LEAP构建中国交通部门碳减排模型(CERM-CT),包含4类228种减排技术和措施,设计基准、碳减排和深度碳减排3组情景,分析了交通部门背后的驱动因子和服务需求,并对技术措施进行了成本有效性分析,提出了中国交通部门低碳发展转型路径.结果表明,降低车辆能耗和发展新能源汽车较为成本有效,运输结构调整碳减排潜力大.碳减排情景下,交通部门长期碳排放2050年下降至4.4亿t,相比基准情景减排69.7%,较基准年碳排放减少3.3亿t,有望在2060~2070年间实现碳中和.深度碳减排情景下,交通部门2050年碳排放下降至1.9亿t,相比基准情景和碳减排情景分别减排86.9%和56.9%,较基准年和碳减排情景分别减少碳排放5.8亿t和2.5亿t,有望在2060年前实现碳中和.不断提高燃油经济性、大力推广新能源汽车、控制机动车保有量和调整交通运输结构是交通部门实现低碳发展转型的必要减排手段,分别能带来25.0%、16.7%、8.3%和50.0%的减排量.深度碳减排情景下2021~2030年和2031~2050年的低碳交通新增固定投资分别为4.2万亿和6.3万亿,平均每年0.4万亿,主要用于新建基础设施投资、终端用能设备改造、低碳技术研发等,其中新建基础设施投资占较大比例,均超过两个时间段总投资的80%.中国交通部门实现低碳发展转型需不断优化运输结构,支持新能源汽车的发展,研发低碳技术,加大对低碳基础设施和技术的投资力度.

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关键词 ：交通部门, LEAP模型, 低碳发展转型路径, 情景分析, 成本有效性分析

Abstract：This paper developed a Carbon Emission Reduction Model of China's Transportation (CERM-CT) based on the LEAP model framework, which included four categories and 228 emission reduction technologies and measures. The paper set three scenarios-business-as-usual, carbon emission reduction, and deep carbon emission reduction-to analyze the driving forces and service needs in the transportation sector's low-carbon transition. It analyzed the cost-effectiveness of technological measures and proposed a low-carbon transition pathway for China's transportation sector. It was more cost-effective to reduce vehicle energy consumption and develop new energy vehicles, while adjusting transportation structure had great potential for carbon emission reduction. Under the carbon emission reduction scenario, the long-term carbon emissions of transportation would drop to 440million tons in 2050, 69.7% of that under the business-as-usual scenario. The reduction was equivalent to 330million tons compared to the baseline year, and was expected to lead to economy-wide carbon neutrality between 2060~2070. Under the deep carbon emission reduction scenario, transportation emissions would fall to 190million tons in 2050, which translated to 86.9% and 56.9% reduction compared with the business-as-usual and carbon emission reduction scenarios, respectively. In physical terms, the reduction was 580million tons and 250million tons, respectively, compared with the baseline year and carbon emission reduction scenario, expected to lead to economy-wide carbon neutrality by 2060. Improving fuel economy, promoting faster development of new energy vehicles, controlling motor vehicle holdings, and adjusting the transportation structure were essential ways to achieve low-carbon transition in transportation sector, which could contribute to 25.0%, 16.7%, 8.3%, and 50.0% of emission reduction, respectively. The fixed investment demand for the deep carbon emission reduction scenario between 2021~2030 and 2031~2050 were 4.2 trillion RMB and 6.3trillion RMB, respectively, with an average annual investment of 0.4trillion RMB. The investment was mainly used for the building of new infrastructure, renovation of terminal energy equipment and development of low-carbon technologies, among which new infrastructure accounted for over 80% of the total investment in the two time periods. To achieve low-carbon transition, China's transportation sector needs to continuously optimize the transport structure, support the development of new energy vehicles, develop low-carbon technologies, and increase investment in low-carbon infrastructure and technologies.

Key words： transportation sector LEAP model low-carbon transition pathway scenario analysis cost-effectiveness analysis

收稿日期: 2022-11-16

PACS:

X196

基金资助:重庆市社科联重庆市社会科学规划博士项目(2022BS065);重庆理工大学国家“两金”培育项目(2022PYR15);重庆理工大学科研启动基金(2022ZDR010)

通讯作者: 王克,副教授,wangkert@ruc.edu.cn E-mail: wangkert@ruc.edu.cn

作者简介: 贾璐宇(1992-),女,四川成都人,讲师,博士,主要从事能源与气候变化经济学研究.发表论文8篇.jialy@cqut.edu.cn

引用本文:

贾璐宇, 王克. 碳中和背景下中国交通部门低碳发展转型路径[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(6): 3231-3243. JIA Lu-yu, WANG Ke. Low-carbon transition pathways for China's transportation sector under the background of carbon neutrality. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(6): 3231-3243.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I6/3231

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