气候变化和土地利用变化对长江中下游地区植被NPP变化相对贡献分析

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摘要基于MODIS数据、气象数据和土地利用类型数据,利用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性检验和重标极差(R/S)分析,揭示长江中下游地区植被生态系统NPP时空演变特征和未来变化趋势;并基于情景设置的相对贡献分析,在区域和格网尺度上定量厘定气候变化和土地利用变化对长江中下游地区植被生态系统NPP变化的相对贡献.结果表明,时间上,2000~2021年长江中下游地区植被NPP整体呈波动上升趋势,上升速率为6.99g/(m²·a).林地、草地和耕地生态系统NPP均呈上升趋势,林地生态系统NPP上升速率最高,为9.79g/(m²·a),草地生态系统NPP上升速率次之,为8.84g/(m²·a),耕地生态系统NPP上升速率最低,为2.34g/(m²·a).空间上,长江中下游地区植被NPP变化斜率呈现"南高北低"的空间分布格局.长江中下游地区整体及各植被生态系统NPP呈上升趋势的面积占比均大于呈下降趋势的面积占比,其中,林地和草地生态系统NPP呈上升趋势的面积占比分别为91.43%和91.48%.长江中下游地区植被NPP未来呈上升趋势的面积占比小于呈下降趋势的面积占比.由相对贡献分析结果可知,区域尺度上,气候变化和土地利用变化对长江中下游地区植被生态系统NPP变化的相对贡献分别为85.60%和10.85%.气候变化主导林地和草地生态系统NPP变化,而土地利用变化主导耕地生态系统NPP变化.格网尺度上,长江中下游地区耕地和草地生态系统NPP变化由土地利用变化主导的面积占比最大,分别为54.99%和56.91%.林地生态系统NPP变化由气候变化主导的面积占比最大,为71.96%.剩余因素对耕地生态系统NPP变化的相对贡献高于林地和草地生态系统.

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	徐勇
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关键词 ：长江中下游地区, 植被NPP, 气候变化, 土地利用变化, 植被生态系统, 相对贡献

Abstract：Quantitatively distinguishing the relative contribution of climate change and land use change on the net primary productivity (NPP) variation of vegetation ecosystems in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin at regional and grid scales can provide reference for regional ecological environment protection and vegetation resource management. The spatio-temporal variation and its future changing trend of the vegetation ecosystem NPP in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin were firstly explored using Theil-Sen Median analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, and rescaled range (R/S) analysis based on MODIS data, meteorological data, and land use type data. The relative contribution of climate change and land use change on the vegetation ecosystem NPP in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin were then quantitatively distinguished by relative contribution analysis on the basis of scenario settings. Results showed that, on the temporal scale, the vegetation NPP had fluctuated and increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin from 2000 to 2021 with a magnitude of 6.99g/(m²·a). The NPP of forest land, grassland, and cultivated land ecosystems showed upward trends. The increasing rates of NPP in descending order were observed in forest land, grassland, and cultivated land ecosystems with magnitudes of 9.79g/(m²·a), 8.84g/(m²·a), and 2.34g/(m²·a), respectively. On the spatial scale, the changing rate of vegetation NPP presented a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the south and low in the north" of the study area. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the proportion of areas with NPP increase in the whole region as well as forest land, grassland, and cultivated land ecosystems was larger than the proportion of areas with NPP decrease, among which, the proportion of areas with NPP increase in forest land and grassland ecosystems was 91.43% and 91.48% respectively. The proportion of the area with NPP increase in the future was smaller than that with NPP decrease in the study area. The relative contribution of climate change and land use change can be obtained on the basis of the results of the relative contribution analysis that, on the regional scale, the relative contribution of climate change and land use change on the NPP variation of vegetation ecosystem in the study was 85.60% and 10.85%, respectively. Furthermore, the NPP variation in forest land ecosystem and grassland ecosystem was dominated by climate change dominated, while the NPP variation in cultivated land ecosystem was dominated by land use change. On the grid scale, the proportion of the areas with NPP variation dominated by land use change accounted for 54.99% in the cultivated land ecosystem and 56.91% in the grassland ecosystem in the study area, respectively. The proportion of the areas with NPP variation dominated by climate change account for 71.96% in the forest land ecosystem. The relative contribution of other factors on the NPP variation in cultivated land ecosystem was higher than that in forest land and grassland ecosystems.

Key words： the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin vegetation net primary productivity climate change land use change vegetation ecosystem relative contribution

收稿日期: 2023-02-01

PACS:

X171.1

基金资助:广西自然科学基金资助项目(2020GXNSFBA297160)；广西科技基地和人才专项(桂科AD21220133)

通讯作者: 徐勇,副教授,yongxu@glut.edu.cn E-mail: yongxu@glut.edu.cn

作者简介: 徐勇(1988-),男,湖南益阳人,副教授,博士,主要研究方向为气候变化和植被覆盖反演.发表论文40余篇.yongxu@glut.edu.cn

引用本文:

徐勇, 卢云贵, 戴强玉, 赵纯, 黄雯婷, 陈天伟, 张炎. 气候变化和土地利用变化对长江中下游地区植被NPP变化相对贡献分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(9): 4988-5000. XU Yong, LU Yun-gui, DAI Qiang-yu, ZHAO Chun, HUANG Wen-ting, CHEN Tian-wei, ZHANG Yan. Assessment of the relative contribution of climate change and land use change on net primary productivity variation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(9): 4988-5000.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I9/4988

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