黄河源区积雪变化时空特征及其与气候要素的关系

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摘要基于1979~2016年积雪深度数据和同期气象站点的降水、气温观测资料，分析了黄河源区年均雪深和积雪天数的时空间演变规律，采用弹性系数法和相关性分析法研究降水、气温对积雪的影响及其空间规律.结果表明，黄河源区积雪期集中在11月到次年4月，源头以及西北高山区积雪初日较早，终日较迟，同时也是年均雪深高值区，积雪天数较长.研究期（1979~2016）内黄河源区面均降水量呈现不显著的减少趋势，下降率为-2.43mm/10a，气温显著上升.面均年均雪深和积雪天数都呈现下降趋势，但趋势在0.05水平上不显著.积雪天数对积雪期降水、气温的弹性系数分别为0.513和-1.347，年均雪深的弹性系数分别为0.696和-0.219，高山寒冷的研究区上游的年均积雪对降水、气温变化更为敏感.降水减少是黄河源区积雪天数下降的主要影响因素，贡献率约为77.2%.积雪期降水和气温对年均雪深变化的贡献率分别为43.7%和56.3%.降水对黄河源区西部和北部年均雪深变化的贡献率较高，在南部和东部气温是影响年均雪深的优势因素.

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	管晓祥
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	王国庆

关键词 ：黄河源区, 积雪变化, 气候变化, 相关性分析, 弹性系数法

Abstract：Based on the long-term snow depth data from 1979 to 2016 and the precipitation, air temperature observation data series from meteorological stations during the same period, the temporal and spatial changing characteristics of the annual average snow depth and snow days in the Yellow River source region (YRSR) were analyzed to reveal the influence of climate change on snow cover. The elasticity coefficient method and the correlation analysis method were employed to quantitatively evaluate the sensitivities of snow cover to precipitation and air temperature changes in different zones of the YRSR. The results show that the duration of snow days in the YRSR was concentrated from November to next April. Earlier initial snow date and later final snow date usually occurred in the source and the northwest high mountainous area, with higher annual average snow depth and longer snow days. Over the research period (1979~2016), the areal-average precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend, with a decrease rate of -2.43mm/10a, while the air temperature increased significantly. Annual snow depth and number of snow days both showed a downward trend, but the trends are not significant at the 0.05 level. The elasticity coefficients of snow days to precipitation and air temperature in the duration of snow days were 0.513 and -1.347 respectively, and the elasticity coefficients of snow depth were 0.696 and -0.219, respectively. Comparatively, variations of snow cover in the upper reaches with high mountains and low temperature were more sensitive to climate change. The decrease in precipitation was the main factor for the decrease of snow days, with the relative contribution rate of 77.2%. The relative contribution rates of precipitation and air temperature to snow depth were 43.7% and 56.3%, respectively. The contribution rate of precipitation to snow depth was relatively higher in the northwest regions, and the air temperature was the dominant factor affecting the snow depth in the south and east parts of the YRSR.

Key words： Yellow River source region snow cover change climate change correlation analysis elasticity coefficient method

收稿日期: 2020-07-28

PACS:

X16

基金资助:国家重点研发计划（2017YFC0404403，2017YFA0605004）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51879164，41961124007，91847301，92047203）；中央高校基本科学研究业务费（2013-B200203016）

通讯作者: 王国庆,教授级高级工程师,gqwang@nhri.cn E-mail: gqwang@nhri.cn

作者简介: 管晓祥(1995-),男,江苏淮安人,河海大学硕士研究生,从事水文水资源模拟方面的研究.发表论文20篇.

引用本文:

管晓祥, 刘翠善, 鲍振鑫, 金君良, 王国庆. 黄河源区积雪变化时空特征及其与气候要素的关系[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(3): 1045-1054. GUAN Xiao-xiang, LIU Cui-shan, BAO Zhen-xin, JIN Jun-liang, WANG Guo-qing. Spatial-temporal variability of the snow over the Yellow River source region and its influencing climate factors. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(3): 1045-1054.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2021/V41/I3/1045

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