The resource utilization potential of decommissioned wind power equipment under the coupling of technical elements in China
GUO Hui-juan1, TANG Shou-juan1,2, KONG Ling-qiang3, GUO Yun4, LIU Guang-xin5, ZHANG Li-xiao6, SHI Lei1,2
1. School of Resources and Environment, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; 2. Engineering Research Center of Watershed Carbon Neutrality of Ministry of Education, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China; 3. School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China; 4. Jiaxing Ecological and Environmental Monitoring Center of Zhejiang Province, Jiaxing 314001, China; 5. Yangtze Delta Region Institute of Tsinghua University, Jiaxing 314006, China; 6. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Abstract：Based on the STELLA platform, a system dynamic model was constructed based on technology iteration, service life, and other influencing factors. This model systematically analyzed and simulated wind turbine waste generation under various scenarios, while quantifying the recycling scale of wind turbine waste and its potential carbon emission reduction effects. The results showed that: (1) Under the design lifetime scenario, the new-installed capacity of wind turbines in China were found to be increasing rapidly from 2006 to 2038, reached a trough in 2047, and then increased again. The scale of wind turbine scrapping was rising rapidly, and the peak time of wind turbines wastes with different unit capacities gradually occurred later as the unit capacity increased. (2) Under the design lifetime scenario, the amounts of waste generation components of wind turbines in 2060 were identified as follows: steel (13.67 million tons), aluminum (197200 tons), copper (762300 tons), plastic (137700 tons), fiberglass (1.7644 million tons), electronic devices (162300 tons), permanent magnets (27700 tons), lubricating oil (11000 tons), and concrete (34.76 million tons), respectively. (3) From 2025 to 2060, the cumulative closed-loop recycling of decommissioned wind turbine materials could meet 49.46%, 41.13%, and 32.67% of the total material demand under the short lifetime, design lifetime, and the long lifetime scenario, respectively. The cumulative carbon emission reductions from 2025 to 2060 with 100% resource utilization of steel, aluminum, copper and permanent magnets in scrapped wind turbines under the short lifetime, design lifetime, and the long lifetime scenario were calculated as 246.54 million tons, 175.95 million tons and 122.18 million tons respectively. Extending the wind turbine lifespan, establishing and improving the recycling system for wind power equipment, strengthening the resource recycling capabilities, and promoting advanced recycling technologies such as steel remanufacturing would reduce greenhouse gas emissions effectively. These efforts are considered significant in achieving China’s goals of peak energy production before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
郭慧娟, 唐守娟, 孔令强, 郭云, 刘广鑫, 张力小, 石磊. 技术要素耦合作用下我国退役风电设备资源化潜力研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2025, 45(4): 2358-2368.
GUO Hui-juan, TANG Shou-juan, KONG Ling-qiang, GUO Yun, LIU Guang-xin, ZHANG Li-xiao, SHI Lei. The resource utilization potential of decommissioned wind power equipment under the coupling of technical elements in China. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(4): 2358-2368.
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