西安BC、PM<sub>2.5</sub>与气温协同对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响

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摘要利用西安市2014~2015年BC、PM_2.5和气温及心脑血管疾病每日死亡人数等资料，基于时间序列的广义相加模型中的主效应模型、非参数二元响应模型和温度分层模型对其进行研究.结果表明，BC、PM_2.5对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响存在滞后效应，最佳滞后时间下，BC、PM_2.5浓度每增加1个IQR（BC：5.31μg/m³，PM_2.5：40.30μg/m³），心脑血管疾病每日死亡人数ER（95% CI）分别为3.53%（95% CI：1.86，5.23）、2.01%（95% CI：1.06，2.97）.气温与心脑血管疾病每日死亡人数的暴露反应关系呈“V”型分布特征，最适温度为26℃.低温和高污染物浓度对心脑血管疾病的影响存在协同放大效应，当气温低于26℃时，BC对人群健康风险比PM_2.5更大.对于心脑血管疾病而言，不同人群的易感程度不同，女性群体对BC、PM_2.5暴露更为敏感.当BC、PM_2.5同时纳入其它一种或几种气态污染物时，对ER值无较大影响.BC仅占PM_2.5浓度的一小部分，但健康影响不容忽视，BC可作为评估大气污染物健康风险的重要空气质量指标.

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关键词 ：黑碳, PM_2.5, 气温, 协同效应, 心脑血管系统疾病, 超额死亡风险

Abstract：Daily death data of cardiovascular diseases during 2014~2015, daily average of BC(black carbon) and PM_2.5 and meteorological data during the same period in Xi'an were collected. Three semi-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) based on the time series, including an independent model, a non-parametric bivariate response surface model, and a temperature stratification model, were adopted to this study. The results showed that BC and PM_2.5 had a lag effect on the daily mortality of cardiovascular diseases in Xi'an. With the optimal lag period, when concentrations of BC and PM_2.5 increased by interquartile range (IQR), the excess risk of cardiovascular diseases increased by 3.53%(95%CI:1.86, 5.23) and 2.01% (95%CI:1.06, 2.97), respectively. The exposure-response relationship between ambient temperature and mortality of cardiovascular diseases both exhibited "V" type and the most comfortable temperature was 26℃. Low temperature and high pollutant concentration had a synergistic strengthening effect on cardiovascular diseases. When the temperature lower 26℃, the modulating effects of temperature on BC-mortality relationship became more pronounced than that on PM_2.5-mortality relationships with temperature cutoff increasing. For cardiovascular diseases, different susceptibility showed in different subgroups, and female groups was more sensitive to the health risks of BC and PM_2.5. When BC and PM_2.5 were included in one or more other gaseous pollutants at the same time, the excess risk had no major impact. The adverse effect of BC on human health should not be neglected in the future. BC may be used as an important air quality indicator to assess the health risks of air pollutants.

Key words： black carbon PM_2.5 temperature synergistic effect cardiovascular diseases risk of excessive death

收稿日期: 2021-01-28

PACS:

X503.1

基金资助:国家重点研发计划课题（2016YFA0602004）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（42005136）；国家重点研发计划课题（2018YFC0214002）；成都市科技局技术创新研发项目（2018-YF05-00219-SN）

通讯作者: 张小玲,教授,xlzhang@ium.cn E-mail: xlzhang@ium.cn

作者简介: 欧奕含(1996-),女,四川成都人,成都信息工程大学硕士研究生,主要从事大气环境与健康研究.

引用本文:

欧奕含, 张小玲, 张莹, 康平. 西安BC、PM_2.5与气温协同对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(9): 4415-4425. OU Yi-han, ZHANG Xiao-ling, ZHANG Ying, KANG ping. Influence of BC, PM_2.5, temperature and their synergy on mortality of cardiovascular diseases in Xi'an. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(9): 4415-4425.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2021/V41/I9/4415

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