京津冀煤改电对PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度的影响

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摘要基于WRF-Chem模型，结合气象要素，从PM_2.5浓度的消减量及时空变化特征等方面模拟分析了煤改电政策实施前后京津冀地区采暖期（2018年11月~2019年3月）PM_2.5的排放变化.结果表明，WRF-Chem模型很好地模拟了京津冀地区PM_2.5浓度变化，北京、天津和石家庄模拟值与观测值的相关系数分别为0.66、0.66和0.52，表现出良好的相关性.煤改电政策的实施对京津冀重点地区PM_2.5减排效果明显，PM_2.5日均减少量分布在0.2~6.1μg/m³，减少比例分布在1.2%~7.8%.PM_2.5小时均值变化显示，2018年12月PM_2.5减少量分布在0.4~8.3μg/m³，减少比例分布在2.3%~7.7%.其中，北京大兴区减排量达8.3μg/m³，天津地区减排比例达7.7%.在特殊气象条件下，煤改电政策影响范围可扩散至山东、江苏、河南北部以及山西西部，PM_2.5小时均值减少量最大超过50μg/m³.

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关键词 ： WRF-Chem, PM_2.5, 煤改电, 数值模拟

Abstract：Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model and combined with the meteorological parameters, the variation of PM_2.5 emission before and after the implementation of the coal-to-electricity policy during the heating period(November 2018 to March 2019) over the BTH region was simulated and analyzed from the aspects of the PM_2.5 concentration reduction and its spatial-temporal variation characteristic. The WRF-Chem model well stimulated the variation of PM_2.5 concentration over the BTH region, and the correlation coefficient between simulated values and observed values in Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang were 0.66, 0.66 and 0.52, respectively, showing a good correlation. The implementation of the coal-to-electricity policy had an obvious effect on the reduction of PM_2.5 concentration in key areas over the BTH region. The average daily mean reduction of PM_2.5 was 0.2~6.1μg/m³, and the average reduction ratio was 1.2%~7.8%. The variation of the PM_2.5 hourly mean concentration showed that the average reduction of PM_2.5 in December 2018 was 0.4~8.3μg/m³, and the average reduction ratio was 2.3%~7.7%. Particularly, the emission reduction in Daxing District of Beijing reached 8.3μg/m³, while the reduction ratio in Tianjin area reached 7.7%. Under special meteorological conditions, the scope of the coal-to-electricity policy over the BTH region could spread to Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan and the western of Shanxi, and the maximum hourly mean reduction of PM_2.5 was more than 50μg/m³.

Key words： WRF-Chem PM_2.5 coal-to-electricity numerical simulation

收稿日期: 2021-07-16

PACS:

X513

基金资助:国家电网公司科技项目（52010118000C）

通讯作者: 陈传敏,教授,hdccm@126.com E-mail: hdccm@126.com

作者简介: 张茹婷(1994-),女,贵州贵阳人,华北电力大学博士研究生,主要从事大气环境化学方面研究.发表论文1篇.

引用本文:

张茹婷, 陈传敏, 吴华成, 周卫青, 李朋. 京津冀煤改电对PM_2.5浓度的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022, 42(3): 1022-1031. ZHANG Ru-ting, CHEN Chuan-min, WU Hua-cheng, ZHOU Wei-qing, LI Peng. Impact of the coal-to-electricity policy on PM_2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(3): 1022-1031.

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