中国农业农村碳排放结构与碳达峰分析

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摘要分别计算了种植业、畜牧业以及农村居民生活的碳排放量及碳排放强度,并对其差异性和收敛性进行分析.结果表明: 我国种植业和畜牧业均在2015年实现较为稳定的达峰,峰值分别为68821.02万t、39909.4万t二氧化碳,而农业农村整体的碳排放量在2017年实现了碳达峰,达峰排放总量为150039万t二氧化碳;在排放结构方面,种植业碳排放量所占的比例较大,基本维持着约50%的比重,而居民生活碳排放的占比急速上升,在2019年占比在30%左右,农村居民生活碳排放主要来源于居民生活能源消费;就农业农村碳排放强度整体而言,泰尔指数变动表明差异总体增加,σ收敛和β收敛表明碳排放强度向总体平均水平收敛.农业承担粮食安全的重任,在碳达峰之后,在完成碳中和目标的同时,还应保证粮食产量.未来应在提高耕地质量、推广高产低碳品种、提高农业生产要素的利用率以及提高技术水平几方面作出努力,以提升农业技术效率, 实现持续碳减排.

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关键词 ：农业, 农村, 碳排放强度结构, 碳达峰

Abstract：This paper presents the carbon emissions and carbon intensity of farming, animal husbandry and rural households, and analyses their differences and convergence. The results indicate that the carbon emissions from the farming industry and the livestock industry in China peaked at 688.2102 million tons and 399.094 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2015, while the carbon emissions from the agricultural and rural areas as a whole peaked at 1500.39 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2017; in terms of the emission structure, about 50% of the carbon emissions attributed to the farming industry, while the proportion of carbon emissions from residential life rose sharply, accounting for about 30% in 2019, which mainly originated from residential energy consumption; with regard to the overall carbon emission intensity of agriculture and rural areas, the changes in the Thiel index indicate an overall increase in variance, and the σ convergence and β convergence results indicate a convergence of carbon emission intensity to the overall average level. Agriculture is crucial to food security, and after the carbon peak, food production should be ensured while meeting the carbon neutrality target. In the future, it has to improve the quality of arable land, promote high-yielding low-carbon varieties, enhance the utilization rate of agricultural production factors, and develop agricultural technology, lifting technology efficiency and achieving sustainable carbon emission reduction.

Key words： agriculture rural carbon emission intensity structure carbon peak

收稿日期: 2022-09-19

PACS:	X322
	F326.3

基金资助:中央高校建设一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金(21XNL006)

通讯作者: 曾贤刚,教授,zengxg@ruc.edu.cn E-mail: zengxg@ruc.edu.cn

作者简介: 曾贤刚(1972-),男,江西九江人,教授,博士,主要从事环境经济学研究.发表论文100余篇.zengxg@ruc.edu.cn.

引用本文:

曾贤刚, 余畅, 孙雅琪. 中国农业农村碳排放结构与碳达峰分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(4): 1906-1918. ZENG Xian-gang, YU Chang, SUN Ya-qi. Carbon emission structure and carbon peak of agriculture and rural areas in China. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(4): 1906-1918.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I4/1906

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