双碳目标背景下宁夏地区碳达峰预测

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摘要为了提高区域碳达峰的峰值和出现时间的预测精度,以宁夏地区为研究对象,在利用IPCC碳排放系数法核算地区的历史碳排放量,创新性地使用动态时间规整算法(DTW)准确识别碳排放的主要影响因素的基础上,联合运用主成分分析法和可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT),构建了基于STIRPAT模型的区域碳排放量预测模型;然后,引入基于因素重要程度评估的情景分析法,结合重要因素的未来可能变化趋势,设计和生成反映不同的社会经济发展状况、技术水平和政策实施效果的情景,最终计算得到不同情景模式下的区域未来碳排放量,准确预估了区域的碳达峰峰值和出现时间,为后续区域碳达峰峰值综合控制策略和对策建议的制定和实施提供了有益的参考依据.

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	王雪亭
	郑非凡
	许野
	李薇

关键词 ：碳达峰预测, STIRPAT, 动态时间规整, 情景分析, 宁夏

Abstract：In order to improve the prediction accuracy of peak value and its occurrence time of regional carbon emission, in this study, selecting the Ningxia region as the research target, the IPCC carbon emission factor method was firstly used to calculate historical carbon emission amounts of this region. Secondly, the DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) algorithm was innovatively utilized to identify main influence factors of carbon emission. Then, the PCA (Principal Component Analysis) method and STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model were jointly used for establishiing a regional carbon emission prediction model. Next, the scenario analysis method based on the importance evaluation of influence factors was introduced to design and generate the scenarios reflecting various socio-economic development conditions, technological levels and policy implementation effects by combining the possible future trend of critical factors. Finally, the regional carbon emission amounts under different scenarios were determined, where regional peak carbon value and its occurrence time were estimated accurately, providing the useful reference basis for the formulation and implementation of subsequent regional peak carbon control strategy and countermeasure proposal.

Key words： carbon peak prediction STIRPAT dynamic time warping scenario analysis Ningxia

收稿日期: 2023-05-06

PACS:

X21

基金资助:国家自然科学基金面上项目(62073134)

通讯作者: 许野,副教授,xuye@ncepu.edu.cn E-mail: xuye@ncepu.edu.cn

作者简介: 王雪亭(2000-),女,辽宁大连人,华北电力大学硕士研究生,主要从事碳资产管理相关研究.615893213@qq.com.

引用本文:

王雪亭, 郑非凡, 许野, 李薇. 双碳目标背景下宁夏地区碳达峰预测[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(S1): 347-356. WANG Xue-ting, ZHENG Fei-fan, XU Ye, LI Wei. Carbon peak prediction in Ningxia under the Dual Carbon Background. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(S1): 347-356.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/IS1/347

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