Evolution characteristics and link prediction of China’s industrial carbon emission network structure
PENG Bang-wen1, ZHENG Hong-fang2, ZHU Lei3, HU Wen-qian1
1. School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China; 2. College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China; 3. School of Public Administration, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an 710055, China
Abstract：China’s industrial carbon emission network was constructed by combining the life cycle assessment of economic inputs and outputs by the minimum flow analysis method. Combined with the social network analysis method, the structural characteristics of China's industrial carbon emission network were analyzed from three aspects, namely, the overall network characteristics, node centrality and block structure. In addition, China's industrial carbon emission network in 2022 was predicted in the form of a directed weighted network based on the idea of modeling the dynamic change of links. The results showed that between 1997 and 2017, the carbon emissions of Chinese industries had become more and more closely related to each subsector; the general machinery manufacturing industry and other industries played a stronger "bridge" role in the network, while the ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry and other industries played the role of "central actor" in the network. The results of the block model showed that different industries played different roles in the block structure of the whole network due to their different industrial chain positions in the industrial system. From the link prediction in 2022, the density of China's industrial carbon emission network decreased significantly, the block structure was further complicated, and the intermediary centrality and near-centrality of five industries, including ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, were ranked in the top five. In the process of formulating, improving and implementing carbon emission reduction policies, it is necessary to pay attentions to the role of the node characteristics of the carbon emission network on cross-industry collaborative emission reduction, the clustering characteristics of the carbon network and carbon transfer paths. Other information needed to be fully captured and utilized, and differentiated policies needed to be formulated for the classification and management of industry sectors, so as to achieve the effect of saving emission reduction costs and improving the efficiency of emission reduction.
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