基于STIRPAT模型的海岸带生态韧性影响因素研究——以深圳市为例

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摘要本研究以深圳市为案例,建立海岸带生态韧性评估框架,开展了海岸带生态韧性分区评价,运用了STIRPAT模型对影响海岸带生态韧性的社会经济因素进行量化分析并识别关键影响因素及影响程度,提出了海岸带保护修复建议.结果表明,2021年深圳市海岸带生态韧性综合评价得分在8.97~92.12之间,具有明显的东西部空间分异特征,东部海岸带生态韧性较高而西部较低,海岸带生态韧性水平与本底地理特征、城市开发程度具有密切关联.区域富裕度是影响深圳市海岸带生态韧性的主要负面因素,填海面积、环境污染、人口密度等因素对海岸带生态韧性也具有负面的影响;万元GDP水耗的降低对海岸带生态韧性有正向影响,表明技术创新和高质量经济发展会促进海岸带生态韧性提升.本研究成果可为高密度城市海岸带生态韧性研究提供新方法,为海岸带管理提供科学依据.

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	祁小丽
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	俞露

关键词 ：海岸带生态韧性, 空间分异, STIRPAT模型, 影响因素, 深圳

Abstract：We established an assessment framework for coastal ecological resilience and conducted a regional evaluation in the area of Shenzhen as a case study. The STIRPAT model was employed to quantify the socioeconomic factors affecting coastal ecological resilience and identify key influencing factors and the extent of their impact. Strategies for coastal zone protection and restoration were also proposed. The results showed that, in 2021, the Shenzhen's coastal ecological resilience score ranged from 8.97 to 92.12, indicating a distinct spatial difference between the eastern and western parts, with a higher ecological resilience in the former. The spatial pattern of coastal ecological resilience was closely associated with the underlying geographical characteristics and urban developmental features of the area. The level of regional affluence was identified as a major negative factor impacting the resilience, followed by other factors such as reclaimed land area, environmental pollution, and population density. Conversely, a reduction in water consumption per unit of GDP showed a positive effect on coastal ecological resilience, suggesting that technological innovation and high-quality economic development can significantly enhance coastal ecological resilience. The results of this study provide a new method for studying ecological resilience in high-density urban coastal zones and a scientific basis for coastal zone management.

Key words： coastal ecological resilience spatial differentiation STIRPAT model influencing factors Shenzhen

收稿日期: 2024-05-24

PACS:

X196

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(52078004);深圳市科技计划项目(KCXFZ20211020164205009,KCXST20221021111416039)

通讯作者: 栾博,正高级工程师,luanbo@pku.edu.cn E-mail: luanbo@pku.edu.cn

作者简介: 祁小丽(1986-),女,广东佛山人,北京大学深圳研究院博士后,研究方向为城市和海岸带生态环境管理.发表论文6篇.125922295@qq.com.

引用本文:

祁小丽, 栾博, 周文君, 罗珈柠, 俞露. 基于STIRPAT模型的海岸带生态韧性影响因素研究——以深圳市为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2025, 45(1): 416-429. QI Xiao-li, LUAN Bo, ZHOU Wen-jun, LUO Jia-ning, YU Lu. Factors influencing urban coastal ecological resilience based on the STIRPAT model: a case study of Shenzhen City. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(1): 416-429.

链接本文:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V45/I1/416

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