淮海经济区景观生态风险多情景模拟

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摘要以淮海经济区为例,分析了该区2003~2023年土地利用时空演化特征,借助PLUS模型、空间统计方法和景观生态风险评价模型识别了不同时期、情景下的景观生态风险时空分异和空间集聚特征.结果表明:(1)淮海经济区土地利用类型以耕地和建设用地为主,20a间土地利用格局整体变化不大,主要表现为耕地向建设用地的转变;(2)景观生态风险指数呈先增加而后降低的变化趋势,空间分布上呈“东高西低,北高南低”的格局;(3)景观生态风险Moran's I指数呈先降低而后增加的变化趋势,局部空间集聚特征以“高－高集聚”和“低－低集聚”为主;(4)自然发展、经济优先和生态保护3种情景下的景观生态风险指数分别为0.2470、0.2451和0.2489.生态保护情景下高生态风险区的面积占比最大;经济优先情景下低生态风险区的面积占比最大.

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	李保杰
	杜欣颖
	褚帅

关键词 ：景观生态风险, PLUS模型, 多情景模拟, 淮海经济区

Abstract：Taking Huaihai Economic Zone as an instance, the spatio-temporal evolution of land use were analyzed from 2003 to 2023. On this basis, the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and spatial agglomeration of landscape ecological risk were identified for different historical periods and scenarios by combining PLUS model, spatial statistical method and ecological risk assessment model. The results indicate the following: (1) The land use types in Huaihai Economic Zone were mainly cultivated land and construction land. The overall land use pattern has not changed much in the past 20years. Concretely, it mainly manifested as the transformation of cultivated land into construction land. (2) The landscape ecological risk index (LERI) firstly increased and then decreased. In addition, the index was high in the east but low in the west of the study area. Furthermore it was relatively high in the north but low in the south. (3) The Moran's I index of the LERI decreased first and then increased. However, the local spatial agglomeration were mainly 'high-high' and 'low-low' patterns. (4) The LERI under the three scenarios of natural development, economic priority and ecological protection were 0.2470, 0.2451 and 0.2489, respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario, high ecological risk area accounts for the largest proportion across the whole regions. In contrary, the area of low ecological risk area accounts for the largest proportion in the scenario of economic development.

Key words： landscape ecological risk PLUS model multi scenario simulation Huaihai Economic Zone

收稿日期: 2024-10-12

PACS:

X32

基金资助:江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2022SJYB1146)

作者简介: 李保杰(1979-),男,江苏丰县人,副教授,博士,主要从事土地利用变化与生态效应等方面的研究.发表论文20余篇.liboje@126.com.

引用本文:

李保杰, 杜欣颖, 褚帅. 淮海经济区景观生态风险多情景模拟[J]. 中国环境科学, 2025, 45(4): 2112-2121. LI Bao-jie, DU Xin-ying, CHU Shuai. Multi-scenario simulation of landscape ecological risk assessment in Huaihai Economic Zone. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(4): 2112-2121.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V45/I4/2112

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