锁定碳排放约束下我国煤电搁浅资产风险评估

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摘要为评估双碳目标路径实现对产业部门变化的影响,通过构建粤港澳大湾区动态CGE模型,设计基准情景、碳中和情景和强化碳中和情景,评估双碳目标约束下电力系统转型对不同等级电力依赖产业微观及宏观影响.结果表明:相比基准情景,碳中和情景电力部门2045年实现零碳电力,对大湾区经济发展和外购电占比带来一定程度影响,双碳限制作用将促进2050年能源消耗总量和碳排放量分别降低8.9%、67%,导致外购电力占比提高11%和GDP总量损失3.9%,但各产业部门的电能替代性、碳减排贡献性和增加值柔韧性存在差异,其中高等电力依赖部门电能替代性和碳减排潜力较小,同时经济受影响最小,每部门增加值损失约790亿元;中等电力和低等电力依赖部门的碳减排贡献较大,单个部门碳减排空间为400~700万t,每个部门平均经济损失为1000~3200亿元,经济发展受限较大,应推动向高电气化部门和清洁能源替代方向调整.相比碳中和情景,强化碳中和情景电力部门2040年更早实现零碳,绿电增长有利于湾区加强电力供应安全性和社会经济增长,2050年外购电力占比降低11%,促进GDP增长1.5%,增长来自电力部门和中高等电力依赖产业部门,同时促进各等级电力依赖部门电气化率提升.

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	王艳华
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关键词 ：燃煤发电, 搁浅资产, 锁定碳排放, 煤电转型

Abstract：By modelling of the financial situation of coal-fired plants in unit level, the Net Present Value method was used to calculate stranded assets under the scenarios of early retirement, low utilization, restriction et al. Then temporal and spatial distribution of stranded assets were clarified to provide some support for the transition pathway of coal power. The stock of coal-fired power units was the main cause of stranded assets. Controlling the new coal-fired power would help to reduce stranded assets risk. Under the scenario of early retirement and low utilization, the value of operating and new stranded assets in China was CNY 1.90 trillion and CNY 3.98 trillion respectively; Early retirement and low utilization led to obvious interannual distribution differences of coal power stranded assets. The risk of early retirement was mainly concentrated in 2030~2040, while low utilization was concentrated primarily in 2021~2035; The spatial distribution of coal power stranded assets is extremely uneven. The ten major coal power provinces, including Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu, accounted stranded assets for 67% and 70%. Therefore, the low-carbon transition of coal power needed cautious decision-making, paying attention to the stranding of coal-fired power assets caused by early retirement. More importantly, we should prevent and control the impairment of stranded assets caused by flexible transformation. The key provinces such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Jiangsu should be focused especially. Formulate coal power transformation strategies according to local conditions to help power related enterprises and the government choose emission reduction policies.

Key words： coal-fired plants stranded asset carbon lock-in coal power transition

收稿日期: 2021-08-13

PACS:

X321

基金资助:全球能源互联网集团有限公司科学技术项目（SGGEIG00JYJS 2100049）

通讯作者: 王克,副教授,wangkert@ruc.edu.cn E-mail: wangkert@ruc.edu.cn

作者简介: 王克,(1979-),男,江西进贤人,副教授,博士,主要从事能源与气候经济学相关研究.发表论文40余篇.

引用本文:

王艳华, 王克, 刘俊伶, 邹骥. 锁定碳排放约束下我国煤电搁浅资产风险评估[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022, 42(3): 1427-1434. WANG Yan-hua, WANG Ke, LIU Jun-ling, ZOU Ji. China’s coal power stranded assets under carbon lock-in constraint. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(3): 1427-1434.

链接本文:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2022/V42/I3/1427

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