“双碳”背景下中国能源消费碳排放与植被固碳的时空分异

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摘要为理解中国能源消费碳排放(ERCE)与植被固碳(VCS)的演变特征及空间差异,基于气象数据、遥感数据、土地覆盖数据及统计资料等,分别在全国尺度、省域尺度和县域尺度上,定量分析2000~2017年我国ERCE和VCS的动态变化与空间分异格局,并利用碳压力指数(CPI),表征二者之间的相互关系.结果表明:(1)我国ERCE和人均ERCE在2000~2017年间表现出显著增加趋势(P<0.01),但二者分别在2013年和2012年以后出现小幅下降;空间上,二者呈现出“北高南低、东高西低”的差异特征;(2)VCS和人均VCS均在2010年以后呈现快速增加趋势(P<0.01),幅度分别为148.09×10⁶t/a和0.04t/(人·a),东北、西南和黄土高原等区域VCS和人均VCS的增加幅度明显高于其他地区;(3)全国约有近1/3的省份CPI多年平均值在1以上(即ERCE高于VCS),其中上海、天津、江苏、山东、宁夏的CPI平均值较高,且增幅也相对较大,反映出这些区域具有较大的减排压力.研究结果可为我国不同区域碳减排政策的制定提供科学依据.

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关键词 ：能源消费碳排放, 植被固碳, 时空变化, 多源数据, 中国

Abstract：In order to understand the variation characteristics of CO₂ emissions from energy consumption (ERCE) and vegetation carbon sequestration (VCS) in China, dynamic changes and spatial patterns of the ERCE and VCS were quantitatively analyzed from 2000 to 2017 based on multi-source data, including meteorological, satellite, land cover, and statistical data, at the national, provincial, and county scales. Moreover, a carbon pressure index (CPI) was proposed to characterize the relationship between the ERCE and VCS. The ERCE and ERCE per capita had a significant increasing trend between 2000 and 2017 (P<0.01), but both displayed a slight downward trend after 2013 and 2012, respectively. As for spatial patterns, higher increasing trends were found in the northern and eastern China. Both VCS and VCS per capita had a rapidly increasing trend after the year of 2010 (P<0.01), with a trend value of 148.09×10⁶t/a and 0.04t/(person·a), respectively. Particularly, the VCS and VCS per capita displayed larger increasing trends in the northeast region, southwest region, and the Loess Plateau. Nearly 1/3 of all provinces of China had a higher mean value of CPI exceeding 1in China, which meant that the ERCE was higher than VCS. Among them, the relative higher CPI values were found in Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Ningxia, and higher increasing trends of CPI were also found in these regions, which indicated that these regions had greater pressure to reduce carbon emissions. The findings can provide an important reference for developing low-carbon policies in different regions of China.

Key words： CO₂ emissions from energy consumption vegetation carbon sequestration spatio-temporal dynamics multi-source data China

收稿日期: 2021-10-09

PACS:

X321

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41801013);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20180939);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金资助项目(2021SYIAEKFMS27)

通讯作者: 崔雪锋,教授,xuefeng.cui@bnu.edu.cn E-mail: xuefeng.cui@bnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 李成(1988-),男,江苏南京人,讲师,博士,研究方向为全球变化的区域响应.发表论文20余篇.

引用本文:

李成, 杨舒慧, 吴芳, 徐扬, 崔雪锋. “双碳”背景下中国能源消费碳排放与植被固碳的时空分异[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022, 42(4): 1945-1953. LI Cheng, YANG Shu-hui, WU Fang, XU Yang, CUI Xue-feng. Spatio-temporal patterns of CO₂ emissions from energy consumption and vegetation carbon sequestration in China under the emission peak and carbon neutrality. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(4): 1945-1953.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2022/V42/I4/1945

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