Abstract:To ensure the supply of ecological products, China established the National Key Ecological Function Zones (NKEFZ) and initiated a central general equalized transfer payment project. By employing county-level panel datasets from 2002 to 2017, this paper used the Propensity Score Matching to construct a "counterfactual" scenario for the policy group, and evaluated the income effect based on the difference-in-difference strategy. Results show that the policy has improved the financial resources of counties and improved the industrial structure to a certain extent in the long run; the funding allocation mechanism based on the standard financial gap has weakened the incentives for county economic development, and the financial subsidies cannot fully offset the negative impact of development restrictions on county economies; fixed asset investment and domestic enterprises are more affected. With the accumulation of investment funds and the transformation of ecological product value, the negative effect will weaken over time and the economic promotion effect will gradually appear. The policy effect shows obvious heterogeneity among different ecological functions and economic zones. It is recommended to continuously increase the ecological transfer funds, use the quantity and quality of ecological product supply as the basis for fund allocation, and consider designing differentiated policies according to ecological function types to better stimulate the win-win situation between the high level of ecological product supply and economic value realization in counties and facilitate balanced regional development.
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