黄石市大气二氧化氮健康效应与人群暴露风险

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摘要为揭示黄石市二氧化氮(NO₂)的健康效应和人群暴露风险特征,收集2015~2020年黄石市NO₂浓度、非意外死亡、呼吸系统和循环系统疾病每日死亡人数、内科疾病每日住院人数以及气象要素等资料,探究了黄石市NO₂时空变化,采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型(GAM)定量评价NO₂对黄石市死亡病例和内科住院病例人数的影响,并对居民的暴露风险(R^*)进行评估.结果表明:黄石市NO₂的浓度年内变化呈“U”型,春冬污染较严重,人群密集和工业区NO₂浓度稍高.在最佳滞后时间下,NO₂浓度每增加10µg/m³,非意外死亡、呼吸系统和循环系统病例的死亡人数在lag01、lag3、lag1时达到最大,增加百分比(ER)值分别为1.93%(95%CI:-2.10,6.14),2.13%(95%CI:-6.56,11.62),4.82%(95%CI:-0.22,10.02),内科疾病每日住院人数在lag05时达到最大,增加百分比(IP)值为5.34%(95%CI:3.58,7.14).住院病例在性别属性分层下,男性群体对NO₂暴露更为敏感;在年龄属性分层下,18~60岁人群对NO₂暴露更为敏感;在内科病种属性分层下,肾衰竭患者对NO₂暴露更为敏感.评估NO₂的人群暴露风险,其中9~12岁年龄段青少年的R^*最高,成年人中男性18~45岁人群R^*最大,女性80+人群R^*最大,季节分层下人群平均R^*春季>秋季>冬季>夏季.

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	王柯懿
	康平
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	张小玲
	汪可可
	王安怡
	冯浩鹏
	王九胜

关键词 ：黄石市, NO₂浓度, GAM, 健康效应, 暴露风险

Abstract：In order to reveal the characteristics of health effects and population exposure risk of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in Huangshi City, NO₂ concentration, non-accidental deaths, daily deaths from respiratory and circulatory diseases, daily hospitalizations for medical diseases, and meteorological elements in Huangshi city from 2015 to 2020 were collected. Based on these data, the spatial and temporal variation of NO₂ was explored, the effect of NO₂ on the number of fatal cases and internal medicine hospitalizations was quantitatively evaluated by using a semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM), and the exposure risk (R^*) of residents was evaluated. The intra-annual variation of NO₂ concentration in Huangshi was "U" shaped, with more serious pollution in spring and winter, and slightly higher NO₂ concentration in densely populated and industrial areas. At the optimal lag time, with each 10µg/m³ increase in NO₂ concentration, the number of deaths in non-accidental, respiratory, and circulatory cases reached the maximum at lag01, lag3, lag1, with percentage increase (ER) values of 1.93% (95%CI: -2.10, 6.14), 2.13%, (95%CI: -6.56, 11.62), 4.82% (95%CI: -0.22, 10.02), respectively. The number of daily hospitalizations for internal medical diseases reached the maximum at lag05 with a percentage increase (IP) value of 5.34% (95% CI: 3.58, 7.14). Focus on the gender attributes of hospitalized cases, the male group was more sensitive to NO₂ exposure; Focus on age attributes, the 18~60 years group was more sensitive to NO₂ exposure; Focus on medical disease attributes, patients with renal failure were more sensitive to NO₂ exposure. Assess the population exposure risk of NO₂, the highest R^* was found for adolescents in the age group of 9~12 years. The adult population had the highest R^* for males in the 18~45 age group and the highest R^* for females in the 80+ age group. The seasonal ranking of the mean R^* for all age groups was spring > autumn > winter > summer.

Key words： Huangshi City NO₂ concentration GAM health effects exposure risk

收稿日期: 2022-05-06

PACS:

X503.1

基金资助:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602004);国家外国专家项目(G2021036001);成都市科技计划项目(2019-YF05-00718-SN)

通讯作者: 康平,讲师,kangping@cuit.edu.cn E-mail: kangping@cuit.edu.cn

作者简介: 王柯懿(1996-),女,湖北省黄石人,成都信息工程大学研究生.主要从事大气环境相关研究.发表1篇论文.

引用本文:

王柯懿, 康平, 欧奕含, 张小玲, 汪可可, 王安怡, 冯浩鹏, 王九胜. 黄石市大气二氧化氮健康效应与人群暴露风险[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(1): 383-393. WANG Ke-yi, KANG Ping, OU Yi-han, ZHANG Xiao-ling, WANG Ke-ke, WANG An-yi, FENG Hao-peng, WANG Jiu-sheng. Health effects and population exposure risk of nitrogen dioxide in Huangshi City. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(1): 383-393.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I1/383

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