京津冀地区碳排放强度变化驱动因素及归因分析

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摘要基于LMDI-Attribution模型,以国家五年规划为时间划分,探究了京津冀地区2000~2020年能源强度、产业结构和排放因子对其碳排放强度变化驱动的时空演变特征,追溯量化了各驱动因素中终端细分行业阶段性贡献情况.结果表明:北京市已经实现碳达峰,津冀两地碳排放量从2012年进入平台期,河北省碳排放量主导着京津冀整体碳排放量走势且在十三五中后期出现反弹.京津冀整体碳排放强度均从十一五时期开始出现从升到降的转折,十三五中后期反弹;2000~2020年京津冀整体碳排放强度累计下降71.09%,能源强度贡献最为突出,累计抑制贡献率为54.36%,产业结构38.17%,排放因子贡献最弱.十五~十二五时期,能源强度是京津冀整体碳排放强度变化的主导因素,十三五时期产业结构上升为主导因素;能源强度和产业结构在各时期对碳排放强度变化的影响基本都依托于工业和交通运输业.4段时期中,工业通过能源强度对整体碳排放强度变化的影响呈V型变化,从促进到抑制再到促进,十三五末促进效应为7.48%,而通过产业结构的影响呈持续稳定抑制效应.交通运输业自十一五后,无论是通过能源强度还是产业结构,均持续抑制整体碳排放强度变化.由此为双碳目标下京津冀协同治理提出政策建议.

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关键词 ：京津冀地区, 碳排放强度, 驱动因素, 归因分析, 协同治理

Abstract：Based on the LMDI-Attribution model, the paper investigated the spatial and temporal evolution of energy intensity, industrial structure and emission factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region along the Five-Year Plans of China from 2000 to 2020, and retrospectively quantified phased contributions of sub-sectors in each driving factors. Beijing has reached the carbon peak, while Tianjin and Hebei have entered a plateau since 2012. The carbon emission of Hebei province dominated the overall carbon emission trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and rebounded during the middle and late stage of 13^th Five-Year Plan. The overall carbon emission intensity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region began to turn from rising to falling during the 11^th Five-Year Plan, and rebounded in the middle and late 13^th Five-Year Plan. From 2000 to 2020, the overall carbon emission intensity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region decreased by 71.09%, among which emission factors contributed the least while energy intensity the most, with a cumulative inhibition contribution rate of 54.36% and an industrial structure of 38.17%. As for the carbon emission intensity change in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the dominant factor changed from energy intensity during 10^th~12^th Five-Year Plan periods to industrial structure in the 13^th Five-Year Plan; during each period, the two factors, energy intensity and industrial structure, exerted an influence on the carbon emission intensity change basically through industry and transportation. During the four periods, the impact of industry through energy intensity on the change of overall carbon emission intensity presented a V-shaped change, from promoting to inhibiting to promoting again. At the end of the 13^th Five-Year Plan, the promoting effect was 7.48%, while the impact through industrial structure showed a continuous and stable inhibiting effect. Since the 11^th Five-Year Plan, transportation has continuously suppressed the overall carbon emission intensity change, both through energy intensity and industrial structure. Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, policy recommendations are provided for the collaborative governance of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Key words： Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region carbon emission intensity driving factors attribution analysis collaborative governance

收稿日期: 2023-01-09

PACS:	X32
	F061

基金资助:国家社科基金资助重大项目(22ZDA003)；教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(18JJD790016)；国家社科基金资助重大项目(20ZDA014)

通讯作者: 胡文涛,助理研究员,hwtxwhr@163.com E-mail: hwtxwhr@163.com

作者简介: 陈亮(1971-),男,安徽阜阳人,副教授,博士,主要从事绿色发展研究.发表论文40余篇.chenliang5@ruc.edu.cn

引用本文:

陈亮, 张楠, 王一帆, 胡文涛. 京津冀地区碳排放强度变化驱动因素及归因分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(8): 4382-4394. CHEN Liang, ZHANG Nan, WANG Yi-fan, HU Wen-tao. Driving factors and attribution analysis of carbon emission intensity change in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(8): 4382-4394.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I8/4382

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