基于入户调查的农村民用源排放清单与清洁能源政策的减排效果

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摘要以全国农村生活燃料消费入户调查数据建立的能源消费模型为基础,模拟2015年我国县级煤炭与生物质消费水平,构建农村生活能源的温室气体与大气污染物排放清单.在此基础上,以2025年作为政策效应年份,评估农村生活能源清洁转型的减排效果.结果表明,2015年我国农村居民煤炭和生物质燃料的消耗量分别为169.5和242.0Mt,由此产生的PM_2.5、VOCs、SO₂、NO_x、CO、CO₂排放量分别为2.91Mt、1.98Mt、2.39Mt、524.3kt、43.0Mt和642.9Mt,其中河北省是排放最高的省份.到2025年,在无政策作用情景下,温室气体与空气污染物排放总量将比2015年下降约15%,而在清洁转型政策作用最为明显的北方采暖地区,相对于无政策作用情景,PM_2.5、VOCs、SO₂、NO_x、CO、CO₂的排放量分别下降76.0%、76.7%、75.6%、55.4%、76.6%、43.2%,具有较理想的污染减排效果.

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	王晨
	鲍艾
	刘俊
	周鑫
	赵相怡
	彭丽
	王玉
	安浩文
	唐晓龙
	易红宏

关键词 ：农村生活能源, 空气污染, 排放清单, 清洁取暖

Abstract：Based on the energy consumption model established by the national rural domestic fuel consumption survey data, this study simulated the coal and biomass consumption level at the county level in 2015, and constructed the greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission inventory of rural domestic energy. On this basis, 2025 is taken as the policy effect year to evaluate the emission reduction effect of the clean transformation of rural living energy. The results show that the consumption of coal and biomass fuel by rural residents in 2015 was 169.5Mt and 242.0Mt, respectively. The resulting emissions of PM_2.5, VOCs, SO₂, NO_x, CO and CO₂ were 2.91Mt, 1.98Mt, 2.39Mt, 524.3kt, 43.0Mt and 642.9Mt respectively, among which Hebei Province was the highest emission province. By 2025, the total emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in the no-policy scenario will be reduced by about 15% compared with 2015, and in the northern heating region, where the role of clean transition policies is most obvious, compared with the no-policy scenario, The emissions of PM_2.5, VOCs, SO₂, NO_x, CO and CO₂ were reduced by 76.0%、76.7%、75.6%、55.4%、76.6% and 43.2% , respectively, which has an ideal pollution reduction effect.

Key words： rural domestic energy air pollution emission inventory clean heating

收稿日期: 2023-10-01

PACS:

X51

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(42375171,42105157);北京市自然科学基金资助项目(8192024);北京科技大学青年教师学科交叉研究项目(6600083);能源基金会项目(G-2109-33379,G-2306-34754 );中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(6500166)

通讯作者: 刘俊,副教授,liujun@ustb.edu.cn E-mail: liujun@ustb.edu.cn

作者简介: 王晨(2002-),女,天津人,北京科技大学本科生,主要研究方向空气污染、气候变化与健康.发表论文3篇.2651121814@qq.com.

引用本文:

王晨, 鲍艾, 刘俊, 周鑫, 赵相怡, 彭丽, 王玉, 安浩文, 唐晓龙, 易红宏. 基于入户调查的农村民用源排放清单与清洁能源政策的减排效果[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(5): 2811-2822. WANG Chen, BAO Ai, LIU Jun, ZHOU Xin, ZHAO Xiang-yi, PENG Li, WANG Yu, AN Hao-wen, TANG Xiao-long, YI Hong-hong. Emission inventory of rural civilian sources surveyed in households and the emission reduction effects of clean energy policies. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(5): 2811-2822.

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