Interaction effects between ambient temperature and black carbon and PM2.5 on mortality in Beijing
ZHANG Ying1,2, XIN Jin-yuan2, ZHANG Xiao-ling1,3, NI Chang-jian1, MA Pan1, WANG Shi-gong1, FENG Xin-yuan1, HU Wen-ding1, ZHENG Can-jun4
1. Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Institute of Meteorological Environment and Public Health, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 3. Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China; 4. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Abstract:Daily death data of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases during 2010~2016, daily average air pollutants (including black carbon[BC], particulate matter with aerodynamic less than 2.5[PM2.5], sulfur dioxide[SO2], ozone[O3], and nitrogen dioxide[NO2]) and meteorological data during the same period in Beijing were collected. Three semi-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), including an independent model, a nonparametric bivariate response surface model, and a stratification parametric model, were adopted to explore the adverse health effects of temperature, different-sized particles (BC and PM2.5) and the synergistic effects between temperature and particles on respiratory and cardiovascular system diseases, respectively. The results of single-effect studies showed that the exposure-response relationships between ambient temperature and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases both exhibited "J" type and the most comfortable temperature is 24℃. The health risks were strongest between the current and previous day (lag01) average concentrations of BC and PM2.5 (Lag01). An interquartile range (IQR) increments in BC (4.11μg/m3) and PM2.5 (62.4μg/m3) were associated with 1.80% and 2.21% increase in respiratory mortality and 1.48% and 2.02% increases in cardiovascular mortality, respectively. The combined effects between particles and temperature on human health suggested that the mortality reach the maximum when high temperature and high mass concentrations of PM (BC and PM2.5) coexisted. Furthermore, the modulating effects of temperature on BC-mortality relationship becoming more pronounced under high temperature conditions than that on PM2.5-mortality relationships with temperature cutoff increasing. IQR increments in BC and PM2.5 were associated with 6.96% and 6.50% increases in respiratory mortality and 6.14% and 4.54% increases in cardiovascular mortality when temperature>26℃. We should pay more attention to the adverse effect of BC on human health in the future.
张莹, 辛金元, 张小玲, 倪长健, 马盼, 王式功, 冯鑫媛, 胡文东, 郑灿军. 北京市气温与黑碳和PM2.5对疾病死亡影响的交互效应[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(7): 3179-3187.
ZHANG Ying, XIN Jin-yuan, ZHANG Xiao-ling, NI Chang-jian, MA Pan, WANG Shi-gong, FENG Xin-yuan, HU Wen-ding, ZHENG Can-jun. Interaction effects between ambient temperature and black carbon and PM2.5 on mortality in Beijing. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(7): 3179-3187.
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