Global carbon budget and emissions pathway of 2℃ and 1.5℃ target
CUI Xue-qin1, WANG Ke1, FU Sha2, ZOU Ji1,3
1. School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;
2. National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100038, China;
3. School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology(Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China
By collecting up-to-date global emissions scenario results, we analyzed the range of global carbon budget of 2℃ and 1.5℃ target set by the Paris Agreement, and compared mitigation requirements of key time points, time of emission peaking and carbon neutral, and scales of negative emissions technologies application, of different emissions pathways. Compared to 2℃ target, global remaining carbon budget will be halved, more rapid mitigation will be required from 2020 onwards, and negative emissions technologies will be more heavily relied on. Delaying near-term mitigation action will strongly reduce future carbon budget, thus require deeper mitigation in mid and long term. Annual reduction rate will be required to increase by 1.2%, and net-zero emissions need to be reached 20years earlier; global carbon budget could be allocated to countries through different effort-sharing schemes. Regional distribution of global carbon budget is closely related to the chosen effort-sharing schemes. Resource-sharing schemes are more favourable for the United States and Europe, while burden-sharing ones are more favourable for China and India.
崔学勤, 王克, 傅莎, 邹骥. 2℃和1.5℃目标下全球碳预算及排放路径[J]. 中国环境科学, 2017, 37(11): 4353-4362.
CUI Xue-qin, WANG Ke, FU Sha, ZOU Ji. Global carbon budget and emissions pathway of 2℃ and 1.5℃ target. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2017, 37(11): 4353-4362.
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