壶瓶山国家级自然保护区毛冠鹿适生区评估

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摘要壶瓶山国家级自然保护区(简称:壶瓶山保护区)被选为华南虎(Panthera tigris amoyensis)的野化放归基地, 评估华南虎的适生区是实施野化放归的首要工作.毛冠鹿(PElaphodus cephalophus)是保护区华南虎的3种主要猎物之一,评估其适生区能为有效估计华南虎的适生区提供了参考.已有毛冠鹿生境选择研究未考虑气候因子和气候变化对其适生区利用与分布的影响.本文利用毛冠鹿的分布数据和环境因子,运用参数组合优化后的MaxEnt模型,评估了毛冠鹿在当前(1970~2000年)气候情景下的适生区利用特征和分布;并分别预测了SSP126(严格环保政策下的低碳排放量情景)和SSP585(宽松的环保政策下的高碳排放量情景)未来2种气候情景中, 2050s(2040~2060年)和2090s(2080~2100年)2个时期的毛冠鹿适生区.最后,将不同时期的适生区划分为高、中、低3个等级.结果显示:最湿季度降水量和最冷季度平均温度对毛冠鹿生境选择的影响贡献为56%;当前气候情景下,高、中适生区总面积为486.5km²,占保护区总面积的72.9%;未来气候情景下,在SSP126情景中,高、中适生区总面积为553.7km²(2050s)和597.2km²(2090s),分别占保护区总面积的83.0%(2050s)和89.4%(2090s);在SSP585情景中,高、中适生区总面积为382.0km²(2050s)和139.5km²(2090s),分别占保护区总面积的57.2%(2050s)和20.9%(2090s).结果表明气候因子是毛冠鹿生境选择的主要影响因子;人类不同的发展路径将引起气候条件发生变化,这将对毛冠鹿的适生区分布产生显著影响.因此,必须考虑气候因子和气候变化对毛冠鹿生境选择的影响,才可以准确评估和预测壶瓶山保护区内毛冠鹿的适生区分布与变化.研究结果为毛冠鹿种群的保护策略的制定和华南虎野化放归计划的实施提供了重要参考.

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	刘祺
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关键词 ：壶瓶山保护区, 毛冠鹿, MaxEnt模型, 气候变化, 适生区

Abstract：The Hupingshan National Nature Reserve (NNR) has been designated as a location for releasing the South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) into the wild. Assessing the suitable habitat for the South China tiger is the primary task of implementing wild reintroduction. The Tufted deer (Elaphodus cephalophos) is one of the three primary prey species of the South China tiger within the reserve. Hence, assessing the distribution of the suitable habitat of the Tufted deer can provide a reference for effectively estimating the suitable area for the South China tiger. Previous studies on habitat selection of the Tufted deer did not consider the impact of climate factors and climate change on its habitat utilization and distribution. The distribution data of the Tufted deer and environmental factors were employed in this study. The MaxEnt model optimized by the parameter combinations was applied to evaluate the distribution of suitable habitats for the Tufted deer under the current (1970~2000a) climate scenario. Then, the distributions of suitable habitats for the Tufted deer under two climate scenarios, SSP126 (the low carbon emission scenario under strict environmental policies) and SSP585 (the high carbon emission scenario under relaxed environmental policies), during the 2050s (2040~2060a) and 2090s (2080~2100a) periods were predicted, respectively. Finally, the suitable habitats for different periods were divided into high, medium, and low suitable levels. The results showed that the contribution of the precipitation of the wettest quarter and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter to the habitat selection of the Tufted deer was 56%. The total area of the high and medium suitable habitats was 486.5km², accounting for72.9% of the total study area in the current climate scenario. Under the future climate conditions, the total areas of the high and medium suitable habitats were 553.7km² (2050s) and 597.2km² (2090s) in the SSP126 scenario, accounting for 83.0% (2050s) and 89.4% (2090s) of the total protected area, respectively. In the SSP585scenario, the total areas of high and medium suitable habitats were 382.0km² (2050s) and 139.5km² (2090s), accounting for 57.2% (2050s) and 20.9% (2090s) of the total study area, respectively. Meanwhile, the climate factors were revealed to be the main influencing factors on the habitat selection of the Tufted deer. Furthermore, the different development paths of human beings might induce the variations in the climate conditions, which would pose a significant impact on the distribution of suitable habitats for the Tufted deer. Therefore, recognizing the impact of climate factors and climate change on the habitat selection of the Tufted deer is necessary for the accurate evaluation and prediction of the suitable habitat in the Hupingshan NNR. Findings from this study can provide important references for the protection of the Tufted deer population and the implementation of the wild release plan for the South China tiger.

Key words： Hupingshan reserve PElaphodus cephalophus MaxEnt model climate change suitable area

收稿日期: 2023-10-25

PACS:

X171.1

基金资助:湖南省教育厅青年项目(22B0252);国家重点研发课题(2022YFD220050);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2022JJ31000);国家自然科学基金资助项目(31470642)

通讯作者: 唐涛,讲师,t20212583@csuft.edu.cn E-mail: t20212583@csuft.edu.cn

作者简介: 刘祺(1996-),女,湖南长沙人,中南林业科技大学硕士研究生,主要从事森林经营管理和生物多样性保护研究.lq20221200534@163.com.

引用本文:

刘祺, 唐涛, 李建军, 康祖杰, 于桂清, 杨存存. 壶瓶山国家级自然保护区毛冠鹿适生区评估[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(5): 2619-2629. LIU Qi, TANG Tao, LI Jian-jun, KANG Zu-jie, YU Gui-qing, YANG Cun-cun. Assessment of the suitable habitat for the Tufted deer (PElaphodus cephalophus) in the Hupingshan National Nature Reserve. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(5): 2619-2629.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V44/I5/2619

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